雙語社評齊齊聽

[英語 (足本收聽)] Presented by TSANG, Wai-sum William, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

[普通話 (足本收聽)] Presented by Dr QIU, Wei Tina, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

The daily number of new COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong has remained in five-digits over the past three weeks. Citizens' pandemic fatigue is accumulating, and there are many signs that footfall on the streets is on the rise. However, the pandemic is still raging on as case numbers remain at a high level with more than 200 daily deaths.

[ENG audio 1]

According to the latest figures from the Department of Health, the cumulative number of COVID cases in the fifth wave of the pandemic has reached 960,000, and it is almost certain that it will exceed one million within this week. As for the actual number of infected people, it may even be several times the official figure. According to the latest estimate from a study by HKU, as of the beginning of this week, over 3.5 million people in Hong Kong, close to half of the city's population, had been infected. The epidemiological modelling estimates by the HKU and CUHK are not entirely the same, but they are relatively in line with each other in terms of two predictions. The first is that the fifth wave of the pandemic has likely peaked; the second is that the fifth wave of COVID will infect about 4.5 million people in total. Yet, estimates are estimates — there are still many variables in the actual development of the pandemic situation. The number of new COVID cases in Hong Kong has remained in five-digits for 20 consecutive days. Looking back at the past 10 days, it has been at the level of about 30,000 new cases per day on most days. As the pandemic is still raging on with high case numbers, maintaining social distance is still very important.

[ENG audio 2]

Young people are active and stronger than elderly people and children. There have been less severe COVID cases involving them. But the pandemic is still raging on, and there are many elderly people, weak people and young children who still have not received sufficient vaccination. If they get infected, there is a risk of death. The Leisure and Cultural Services Department announced that it will close all the gazetted beaches under its jurisdiction and ''strengthen the cordoning off of the beaches'' starting today (17 March) until further notice. This is a necessary step. But if citizens lose their fighting spirit in combating the pandemic and let down their guard against the spread of COVID, they might continue to engage in all kinds of high-risk socialisation in other venues even if beaches are closed off. In the next week or two, the pandemic situation might change course. At such a critical juncture of the anti-epidemic fight, people with a strong constitution need to protect the high-risk group. Everyone must continue to exercise endurance and reduce going out and avoid high-risk activities. If the spread of the virus unfortunately accelerates again, the fifth wave of the pandemic will only drag on longer, and it will not be possible for the strict social distancing measures to be eased soon. All walks of life and all citizens will be affected.

[ENG audio 3]

The fact that the number of citizens going out has rebounded and that beaches are full of people is indeed proof of pandemic fatigue. In addition to calling on the public to be patient, the government must also let the public see hope and know where the long-distance race to contain the fifth wave will end and roughly how far they are from the end of the tunnel. Knowing what lies ahead will make it a bit easier for citizens to bite the bullet and walk on. At present, the daily death toll from the pandemic is still high. The immediate priority is to concentrate medical resources, improve diagnosis and treatment capabilities, and try to reduce severe cases and deaths. However, the government must also outline a blueprint for the public to get out of the pandemic situation. All sectors of society will then know what the government will do to promote the gradual return to normal in society and the economy when the number of infections begins to drop significantly and the amount of deaths and severe cases are brought under better control. It must not just wait and see.

[ENG audio 4]

助民克服抗疫疲勞 政府須提復常藍圖

本港每日新增感染個案，近3個星期一直維持在5位數水平。市民抗疫疲勞日積月累，多項迹象顯示，市面人流有回升之勢，可是疫情仍在高位橫行，天天逾200人死亡。

[PTH audio 1]

根據衛生署最新數字，第五波疫情累計感染個案已達96萬，幾可肯定本周內突破100萬，至於實際感染人數，更可能是官方數字的數倍。港大研究最新推算，截至本周初，全港已有超過350萬人染疫，接近全港一半人口。港大與中大所做的流行病學模型推算不盡相同，但有兩點相對一致，一是第五波疫情相信已見頂，二是預計第五波疫情累計約有450萬人染疫。不過推算歸推算，疫情發展實際仍有很多變數。本港新增感染個案，連續20日處於5位數，回看過去10天，大部分時間皆維持在每日新增約3萬宗水平，疫情仍在高位橫行，保持社交距離，仍然非常重要。

[PTH audio 2]

年輕人好動，體格亦較長者及小童強健，染疫重症較少，可是當下疫情肆虐，仍有很多老弱幼童未打夠針，一旦染疫有死亡風險。康文署宣布，今起關閉轄下所有刊憲泳灘，加強圍封，直至另行通告，有其必要，不過如果市民失去抗疫意志，對病毒傳播掉以輕心，縱然泳灘禁足，轉換場地還是可能繼續參與各式高風險交際。未來一兩周，疫情有轉勢機會，抗疫關鍵時期，強健的人需要保護高危一群，所有人都要繼續忍耐減少外出，避免高風險活動。倘若病毒傳播不幸再加快，第五波疫情只會拖得更長，嚴厲社交距離措施無法早日放寬，受影響的是各行各業和所有市民。

[PTH audio 3]

市民出行指數回升，泳灘人頭湧湧，在在反映抗疫疲勞。政府除了呼籲公眾忍耐，亦要讓市民看到希望，知道這次第五波抗疫長跑終點在何、距離隧道盡頭大致有多遠，公眾心中有譜，咬緊牙關堅持往前走，也會容易一點。當下每日染疫死亡人數依然高企，即時要務仍是集中醫療資源，提升診治能力，設法減少重症及死亡，不過政府亦要向公眾勾勒「走出疫境」藍圖，讓各界知道，當感染數字開始明顯回落、死亡重症得到較佳控制後，政府將有什麼作為，推動民生經濟逐步復常，而非一味見步行步。

[PTH audio 4]

明報社評2022.3.17